Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets

The study presents three different sustainable development pathways, all of which avoid dangerous climate change and enable substantial progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The scenarios were quantified by four different modelling teams participating in the SHAPE project, comprising two “full-system” integrated assessment models (REMIND-MAgPIE and IMAGE) and two sectoral models specialised on the global buildings sector and the required construction materials (MESSAGEiX-Buildings and ODYM-RECC). The study shows that different pathways towards the SDGs are possible, but all of them have their respective strengths and weaknesses. For example, one of the scenarios (“Resilient Communities”) envisions strong lifestyle changes and a transition to a post-growth economy for high-income countries. This scenario has the lowest warming and the strongest improvements in biodiversity, but the underlying assumptions on lifestyle change might be challenging to adopt. On the other hand, a scenario envisioning green-tech innovation and continued economic growth has a much lower reliance on lifestyle changes, but features technologies unproven to work at scale, such as carbon capture and storage.

The publication is accompanied by an interactive web tool for exploration, visualisation and download of the scenario data.

Further information can be found in the press release by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

• Type of publication:Journal Article
• Date of publication: October 2024
• Author/s: Bjoern Soergel, Sebastian Rauner, Vassilis Daioglou, Isabelle Weindl, Alessio Mastrucci, Fabio Carrer, Jarmo Kikstra, Geanderson Ambrósio, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Lavinia Baumstark, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Astrid Bos, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Alois Dirnaichner, Jonathan C Doelman, Robin Hasse, Ariel Hernandez, Johanna Hoppe, Florian Humpenöder, Gabriela Ileana Iacobuţă, Dorothee Keppler, Johannes Koch, Gunnar Luderer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michaja Pehl, Miguel Poblete-Cazenave, Alexander Popp, Merle Remy, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Sarah Cornell, Ines Dombrowsky, Edgar G Hertwich, Falk Schmidt, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren and Elmar Kriegler
• URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ad80af