Fossil materials demand within deep decarbonization scenarios: A feasibility assessment

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are cornerstone tools in guiding decarbonization policies. However, the petrochemical sector, which is crucial to the future of oil and gas due to its non-energy fossil feedstock demands, has been overlooked in IAMs. This study aims to evaluate the implications of this under-representation on decarbonization strategies. We assessed the Illustrative Mitigation Pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Sixth Assessment Report. Our analysis indicates that, without stringent material policies, the feedstock demand can reach unattainable levels from 2050 onwards. This is evidenced by the required disruptive yields of primary oil in feedstocks, which exceed 80 % in some cases. The findings highlight the necessity for improved modelling of the petrochemical sector within IAMs.